Crude Oil Prices Fall 30% in 30 Days

The U.S. is leading the world, the AI and data center boom cannot be stopped, and the boom will persist for at least the next three

years.

Crude oil prices fell almost 30%

in the last month, from levels above $109 per barrel on May 19 to just $76.50 on June 19, the lowest cost for a barrel of crude since March 4, in the first week of the war in Iran.

All this happened in the wake of President Trump signing a Memorandum of Understanding with Iran, effectively reopening the Strait of Hormuz. The Navy blockade on Iran’s ports was briefly lifted, but the sailing may not be smooth, since Iran announced over the weekend that the Strait of Hormuz is closed once again, due to Israel’s strikes in

Lebanon, as Iran is trying to exert leverage to put pressure on Israel.

The U.S. Navy blockade is now focusing on Iranian oil shipments, but this situation is often in flux, and there is a debate about how quickly crude oil shipments can replenish the steep drop in oil stockpiles.

Bloomberg said the Trump administration is planning to authorize the release of 172 million barrels of crude oil from

the Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR), which will leave it with only 243 million barrels, just a third of its capacity, but an Energy Department spokesman said it will refill this decline in SPR levels with approximately 200 million barrels in the next year. Last Wednesday, the Energy Information Agency (EIA) announced crude oil inventories declined 8.3 million barrels in the latest week, larger than the 7.2 million drawdown in the previous week, since we are in the midst of peak summertime demand.

The big news this week is expected to be Micron Technology’s (MU) earnings announcement on Wednesday, which will be the grand finale to a stunning earnings announcement season. The analyst community is forecasting 276.5% sales growth of $35.02 billion and 949.8% earnings growth of $20.05 per share.

In the past month, the analyst community has revised its consensus earnings estimate up 4.8%, which is a good sign, since typically positive analyst earnings revisions precede future earnings surprises.

- The memory stocks exhibited relative strength on Monday during a late NASDAQ sell-off, but lost their mojo on Tuesday due to weak overnight trading in Asia and Europe. As a result, there is a great near-term buying window for many of the high-flying memory and other technology stocks I recommend. The last correction in AI-related stocks this month only lasted four trading days, so every dip should be viewed as a buying opportunity, especially now that Micron Technology will be announcing record sales and earnings on Wednesday.